AI simulation predicts Argentina vs Spain final at 2026 World Cup and early exit for Mexico, USA and Canada

A month before the official draw for the 2026 World Cup , scheduled for December 5 in Washington D.C. , a simulation driven by artificial intelligence has begun to generate conversation about the possible pairings of the new format with 12 groups and 48 teams. The model projected from the group stage to the final, showing a striking picture for the host nations.

According to this exercise, Mexico, the United States and Canada would all make it past the group stage , but none of them would advance beyond the round of 16 . Mexico would fall 3-2 to Brazil , the United States would lose 2-1 to Argentina in extra time, and Canada would be eliminated by the same Argentina in the round of 32 . Despite the home momentum, the AI does not predict a deep run for the three tournament hosts.

Argentina and Spain, the big winners

The simulation projects an outstanding performance from Argentina and Spain , teams that would go through all the knockout phases until they meet in the final scheduled for the MetLife Stadium in New York . The model considers the presence of Lionel Messi for 2026, arguing that his leadership and hierarchy would be decisive for a team accompanied by a new generation of attackers.

In the case of Spain, the prediction shows them as a dominant team in possession, capable of overcoming England in the quarter-finals and Colombia in the semi-finals. However, the AI anticipates that Argentina's offensive efficiency would be superior in the final.

Argentina's double championship and powers with complex paths

The scenario ends with Argentina beating Spain 2-1 to win their second consecutive World Cup. La Albiceleste would also eliminate Brazil in the semifinals after a 2-2 draw, resolved with a penalty shootout victory. Brazil, according to the simulation, would reach this stage after overcoming France in a high-level quarter-final.

Spain, for its part, would reach the decisive match by beating Colombia 3-1, a South American team that the model shows with solid performance until it meets the European team.

The exercise also points to consistent performances from Germany, England and Portugal , although not with enough forcefulness to reach the final.

Expectations for Mexico and the real draw on December 5

Although it is only a simulation, the results reignite the debate about Mexico's chances in 2026 . The AI suggests a short path, but the draw will determine whether El Tri faces an accessible group or a more complex scenario.

FIFA will define the groups in four pots based on the world ranking. The three hosts - Mexico, the United States and Canada- are already qualified and will be placed according to the tournament schedule. In addition, the format will allow for third-place finishers, which adds new possible combinations in an unprecedented World Cup.