Bournemouth vs Burnley Premier League preview, team news and prediction

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Bournemouth host Burnley in the Premier League on Saturday afternoon, with both teams eager for three points. Bournemouth currently sit 13th in the table with five wins, while Burnley are 19th with just three victories, highlighting the gap between the sides ahead of this fixture. Bournemouth have scored 25 and conceded 28 goals in their 16 league matches, whereas Burnley’s goal difference is minus 15 from the same number of games.

Bournemouth’s matches this season have averaged 3.31 total goals, with over 2.5 goals occurring in 63% of their league fixtures and both teams scoring in 56%. In contrast, Burnley’s campaign has been more notable for defeats than for high-scoring encounters, though their defensive record—28 goals conceded—shows a tendency to allow goals even when their own attacking output is limited.

At home, Bournemouth have been solid, recording four wins, three draws, and just one defeat, making them one of the more reliable mid-table sides on their own turf. They average 1.25 goals scored and only 0.63 conceded per home game, resulting in a relatively modest 1.88 total goals per match at the Vitality Stadium—much lower than their away figures. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of Bournemouth’s home league games, with both teams scoring in 38%, suggesting a more controlled approach at home compared to their overall reputation for open football.

Bournemouth generate around 13.5 shots and 1.60 expected goals per home match, indicating their ability to build pressure and create sustained chances. They have also kept four clean sheets in eight home league games, supporting the view that they manage matches well when ahead, especially against lower-half opponents.

Burnley, meanwhile, remain deep in relegation trouble with just 10 points from 16 games and a record that reflects ongoing defensive problems. Their matches often see opponents create good opportunities, and Burnley have struggled to both generate chances and prevent sustained pressure—an issue against a Bournemouth side comfortable in possession at home.

While detailed BTTS and over 2.5 goal stats for Burnley’s recent matches are less clear, their negative goal difference and low points tally suggest they frequently concede multiple goals, especially away from home. Given Bournemouth’s attacking numbers and Burnley’s struggles, the hosts are likely to control the tempo and create the better chances in this encounter.

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