Brighton & Hove Albion vs Sunderland Premier League preview, team news and prediction

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Brighton’s clash with Sunderland at the Amex on Saturday promises to be an intriguing battle between two teams aiming for European qualification next season, with Brighton currently 10th and Sunderland 6th in the Premier League standings.

Throughout the league campaign, Brighton have averaged 1.56 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per match, resulting in a combined goals-per-game figure of exactly 3.00. In contrast, Sunderland’s matches have been lower scoring, with the visitors averaging 1.19 goals for and 1.06 against, for a total of 2.25 goals per game. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Brighton’s league fixtures but just 38% of Sunderland’s, highlighting the contrast between Brighton’s open style and Sunderland’s more cautious approach.

Both teams have scored in 69% of Brighton’s matches, compared to 44% for Sunderland. Brighton also tend to see plenty of second-half action, averaging 1.81 total goals after the break and seeing over 0.5 second-half goals in 94% of their games. Sunderland, meanwhile, have seen under 2.5 goals in 62% of their league fixtures this season.

At home, Brighton have been solid, recording four wins, three draws, and just one defeat at the Amex, with 16 goals scored and 11 conceded (averaging 2.00 scored and 1.38 conceded per home game). Notably, 75% of Brighton’s home matches have featured over 2.5 goals, and 88% have seen both teams score, underlining how open their games tend to be on the south coast. Sunderland’s away form is more mixed, with two wins, two draws, and four defeats on the road, scoring just four and conceding 10 (0.50 scored and 1.25 conceded per away game). Only 25% of Sunderland’s away fixtures have gone over 2.5 goals, and just 25% have seen both teams score, reinforcing their more defensive approach away from home.

Brighton’s attacking numbers reflect Fabian Hurzeler’s proactive style, as they average 13.5 shots per match and boast a healthy expected goals figure of 1.57, with a BTTS rate close to 70%. At the Amex, they generate over 14 shots and five shots on target per game, indicating their intent to control possession and put sustained pressure on Sunderland’s defense.

Sunderland, under Regis Le Bris, are more pragmatic, with an overall xG of 1.08 and xG against of 1.69, yet they have managed to limit opponents to an average of just 1.06 goals conceded per match. Their away data points to a compact setup and longer spells without scoring, with 63% of their away games ending without a Sunderland goal.

Overall, the numbers suggest Brighton will pose the greater attacking threat at home and are likely to push the contest towards both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals—outcomes that have been typical of their season. Sunderland, meanwhile, will likely focus on keeping the game tight and look to capitalize on opportunities in transition.

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