Why Sean Dyche is on a knife-edge at Nottingham Forest: The high-risk strategy he used, why January window is key, the latest on Evan Ferguson and Jorgen Strand Larsen deals and the one player he will NOT sell

Sean Dyche likes to dismiss the daily chatter of football as ‘outside noise’ but he will be thankful that because of Nottingham Forest ’s draw with Arsenal , the din has died down a little.

Life is rarely calm at Nottingham Forest and even for an experienced coach like Dyche, it is difficult not to be swept along by the ever-changing tides.

With only one win in their last six games in all competitions at that stage, Dyche went on the front foot after the defeat on penalties at Wrexham earlier this month, calling out his second string for their woeful first-half performance.

It is rare indeed for a modern manager to castigate his players in public and Dyche’s diatribe raised eyebrows throughout the game. Could he really afford to rubbish some of those he may need in future?

While Dyche would probably lose little sleep if he alienates James McAtee, Oleksandr Zinchenko or Dilane Bakwa, there are those who simply must not be allowed to drift away.

The performances of the big three - Elliot Anderson, Morgan Gibbs-White and Murillo - will go a long way to determining the outcome of the season, and perhaps Dyche’s future beyond it. In that sense, the response against Arsenal was hugely heartening, as the trio played a huge part in Forest gaining a point.

Although he dismisses it as 'outside noise', Sean Dyche will be pleased the draw with Arsenal has quietened the din around Nottingham Forest a little

The performances of Morgan Gibbs-White (left) will go a long way to determining the outcome of Forest's season and perhaps Dyche’s future beyond it

Inheriting a squad handed to Nuno Espirito Santo but built for Ange Postecoglou, Dyche has Forest five points clear of the relegation zone.

When he replaced Postecoglou, they had five points from their opening eight games and were third from bottom. Had the league started when Dyche was hired, Forest would be 14th, only three points off the top 10. Every Forest fan would have signed up for that, given the mood when Postecoglou left.

Dyche’s approach is not about ‘how’ but ‘how many’. Under the former Burnley and Everton boss, Forest have conceded fewer goals and according to Opta data, they are winning more duels and making fewer errors.

Dyche has not been able to use Chris Wood, who scored 20 league goals last season. Wood’s knee injury may keep him out for the rest of the campaign and his effective replacement, Igor Jesus, has scored only once in the Premier League.

No wonder Dyche is desperate for another centre forward, with Forest likely to miss out on Tammy Abraham and Lorenzo Lucca.

The recent sequence is a worry, though. Four straight defeats preceded the crucial 2-1 win at West Ham, where Forest did not convince but got the job done. Then came the Wrexham debacle. Hardly ideal for the fearsome run that follows: Europa League fixtures against Braga and Ferencvaros, and Premier League meetings with Brentford, Crystal Palace and Leeds, all in the space of 16 days.

Igor Jesus has scored only once in the Premier League this season and would not be playing every week were Chris Wood fit

Wood scored 20 league goals last season but his knee injury may keep him out for the rest of the campaign

Crucial January ahead

Forest signed 12 players last summer but not one has been an undisputed starter. Jesus plays every week but if Wood were fit, that would not be the case. They spent in excess of £200million – more than Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich – but the first-choice XI has not improved.

Such mistakes cannot be allowed this month and Dyche’s feeling is clear. Battle-hardened players with Premier League experience are the order of the day and it is no surprise that before the window opened, Forest asked about Brighton duo Lewis Dunk and Jack Hinshelwood.

Dwight McNeil, who Dyche coached at Burnley and Everton, and Marcus Tavernier have also been on their radar, as has Evan Ferguson, the Brighton striker struggling to find his feet on loan at Roma. Forest know his views and are working hard.

As for the No9 spot, Wolves forward Jorgen Strand Larsen is available but the current £40million asking price is considered very high by interested clubs, including Forest. Mehdi Taremi is another target, but the Iran international plays for Olympiacos, who are also owned by Evangelos Marinakis, and any switch between the two clubs would have to be managed carefully.

Daily Mail Sport revealed on January 14 that conversations were ongoing about the futures of Douglas Luiz and Zinchenko, who are at Forest on season-long loan deals but could yet spend the rest of the campaign elsewhere. Zinchenko is poised to join Ajax and his departure would leave room for a new left back to step in when Neco Williams needs a breather.

The injury to John Victor has left Dyche wanting a new goalkeeper and though he would welcome a reunion with former Burnley man Nick Pope, Newcastle will not sell at this stage.

Murillo is wanted by Manchester United but it would take a mind-boggling offer to make Forest even think about doing business in the middle of a season.

Murillo is wanted by Manchester United but it would take a mind-boggling offer to make Forest even think about doing business in the middle of a season

Dwight McNeil (right), who Dyche coached at Burnley and Everton, is on Forest's radar

Where will Forest’s focus be when they recruit?

Dyche’s No 1 task is to keep the club in the Premier League and he needs players who can make an impact immediately. While Forest must balance that need with the importance of building for the future, they cannot afford as many speculative moves as they made last summer.

Where are the players at?

‘The minimum requirement is maximum effort’ is one of Dyche’s mottos. During his hugely successful stint at Burnley, he created the mantra ‘Legs, Hearts and Minds’.

In the first half at Wrexham, Dyche thought too few players were following these principles and that led to the rant.

He took a risk. Even if it is difficult to disagree with many of Dyche’s words, modern players do not take kindly to being criticised in public. Although Dyche mentioned no names, there is only a small group of players he could possibly have been discussing. Even those spared criticism might not have been thrilled to see friends and team-mates called out in public.

When Dyche arrived, players welcomed an end to the chaos of the Postecoglou regime and, in general, they find the training sessions useful.

Yet there are limitations when it comes to Dyche’s preferred style of play, which can leave Igor Jesus isolated, and where coherent attacking moves can be scarce.

In the end, results dictate mood. Forest played a low-possession, counter-attacking game under Nuno yet because they kept winning, there were few complaints. If Forest now embark on another strong run of form that pulls them clear of relegation, the ‘noise’ that frustrates Dyche so much will inevitably die down.

If Forest now embark on another strong run of form that pulls them clear of relegation, the ‘noise’ that frustrates Dyche so much will inevitably die down

Dyche signed a deal until the end of next season but it is naive to think Forest and their owner Evangelos Marinakis will not weigh things up again when this campaign concludes

Dyche’s future

Dyche signed a deal until the end of next season but it is naive to think Forest will not weigh things up again when this campaign concludes.

If he can win the Europa League – which is not beyond the bounds of possibility – as well as keep Forest up, Dyche will surely still be in the dugout at the start of next season.

As things stand, club and manager are aligned and the recruitment team are doing their utmost to give Dyche what he needs in this window.

Things change quickly in football, though – and there are few better examples of this than Forest. Watch this space.