Why Villa are PL title ‘dark horses’ and not relegation candidates as Emery overcomes damning factor

Suddenly, Aston Villa have gone from surprise candidates for relegation to ‘dark horses’ for the Premier League title. It’s been quite the turnaround…

As Aston Villa sat in the Premier League relegation zone after five games of the 2025/26 campaign, there were fears that the Unai Emery era was coming to an end.

Speculation over Emery getting sacked was premature and has since been proven to be wildly misjudged as their early-season woes were never his doing.

Their sudden decline started as last season’s final day loss to Manchester United condemned them to the Europa League instead of the Champions League, thus significantly limiting their freedom to spend in this summer’s transfer window.

In the summer itself, most of the talk surrounding Villa related to player exits as Ollie Watkins, Morgan Rogers and Emiliano Martinez were linked with moves before sticking around, while Jadon Sancho and Harvey Elliot were among the very few notable arrivals.

The overall feeling of malaise at the club following an uneasy summer carried over onto the pitch as Villa did not come close to performing to their maximum and failed to win any of their opening six matches across all competitions inside 90 minutes.

But once Aston Villa got up and running with a 1-0 win against Bologna on September 25, Emery ‘s side have rarely looked back.

Losses against Go Ahead Eagles and Liverpool are the only blotches on an otherwise remarkable run of eleven wins in 13 matches in all competitions, as they have moved joint-top of the Europa League group phase and into the Premier League top four .

And by the end of this week, the Villans have a chance, albeit a slim one, of being level on points with Arsenal at the top of the Premier League table.

It really is a stunning turnaround that is especially impressive considering Aston Villa are not yet playing their best football.

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Thankfully, football is not based on xG, but this data does offer an insight into how teams are actually performing and it is clear that Aston Villa are currently massively overachieving.

In FotMob’s xG table, Aston Villa are down in 17th as they have an expected points tally of 14 from their 13 games, which is ten fewer than their actual total and level with Wolves’ prospective total.

This means Aston Villa are 13 places higher than they theoretically should be. There is no greater disparity between a team’s xG and actual points in the Premier League .

Aston Villa are in such differing positions in each table because they have heavily relied on goals from distance, a resolute defence, and, possibly most importantly, the brilliance of Emery, to overcome their issues and enter the title conversation instead of the relegation picture.

It is not sustainable for this to continue to such a degree, but there should be a levelling out process in the coming months as Aston Villa gain more points through performance merit rather than purely those three key factors.

By which point, Aston Villa , partly due to the inconsistency and lack of quality of teams around them, could be cemented in the Champions League places and be dreaming of something greater.

For now, Villa and England star Ezri Konsa “won’t speak about the title” as he “doesn’t think they are dark horses”, which they are becoming despite the numbers suggesting otherwise.